The Trafalgar Group ( @trafalgar_group ) Twitter Profile

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The Trafalgar Group

Political & corporate market research polling. Best polling firm - 2016 pres race. @realclearnews “most accurate pollster of the cycle” of 2018.

Atlanta, GA

Joined on 10 May, 2009

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org

  • 55 Tweets
  • 84k Followers
  • 1.4k Following

Replying to @RobertCahaly: Shocking News: #GASen #Runoff voters make pocketbook decision.

#GOP control of Senate = $2K COVID stimulus check don’t h…

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Shocking News: #GASen #Runoff voters make pocketbook decision.

#GOP control of Senate = $2K COVID stimulus check don’t happen

Democrat control of Senate = more money is on the way.

The undecided folks broke toward Dems & working families who lean GOP lost motivation to vote.

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Replying to @RobertCahaly: Our final @trafalgar_group 2020 #GASen #Runoff #poll (1/2-1/4) reveals similar trends we have seen showing split win:

Ru…

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Our final @trafalgar_group 2020 #GASen #Runoff #poll (1/2-1/4) reveals similar trends we have seen showing split win:

Runoff
49.4% @Ossoff,
48.5% @PerdueSenate,
2.1% Und,

Runoff (special)
49.7% @KLoeffler,
48.4% @ReverendWarnock,
1.9% Und,

See Report:

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Replying to @RobertCahaly: After @realDonaldTrump brought it up at his last #GA rally, our @trafalgar_group #GASen #Runoff #polls started asking #GO

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After @realDonaldTrump brought it up at his last #GA rally, our @trafalgar_group #GASen #Runoff #polls started asking #GOP voters about a potential #2022 #GAGOP #Primary for Governor. Results:
46.2% @RepDougCollins
6.3% Lean Collins
24.5% @BrianKempGA
7.3% Lean Kemp
15.6% Und

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Replying to @RobertCahaly: If anyone inside the beltway was curious how 2020 #GASen #Runoff voters feel about #stimuluschecks - our latest @trafalga

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If anyone inside the beltway was curious how 2020 #GASen #Runoff voters feel about #stimuluschecks - our latest @trafalgar_group #poll finds the $2k as popular as #BBQ, #CollegeFootball, & #SweetTea:

75.3% raise to $2000
7.4% remain $600
9.5% No checks
7.8% No opinion

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Replying to @RobertCahaly: So as it turns out, GOP Senators not immediately backing @realDonaldTrump’s call to raise the payments from $600 to $2k…

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Replying to @RobertCahaly: Our new @trafalgar_group 2020 #GASen #Runoff #poll (12/23-27) shows a lead shift after the week of the #stimulusbill:

Ru…

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So as it turns out, GOP Senators not immediately backing @realDonaldTrump’s call to raise the payments from $600 to $2k the day before Christmas Eve isn’t something #swingvoters like very much.

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Our new @trafalgar_group 2020 #GASen #Runoff #poll (12/23-27) shows a lead shift after the week of the #stimulusbill:

Runoff
50.4% @Ossoff,
47.7% @PerdueSenate,
1.9% Und,

Runoff (special)
49.6% @ReverendWarnock
48.8% @KLoeffler,
1.6% Und,

See Report:

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Replying to @PpollingNumbers: #GASen Runoff Poll:

Loeffler (R-Inc) 52% (+2 Since Dec 10)
Warnock (D) 46% (-1)

Perdue (R-Inc) 50% (+1)
Ossoff (D) 4…

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#GASen Runoff Poll:

Loeffler (R-Inc) 52% (+2 Since Dec 10)
Warnock (D) 46% (-1)

Perdue (R-Inc) 50% (+1)
Ossoff (D) 48% (-1)

@trafalgar_group

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Replying to @RobertCahaly: Our new @trafalgar_group 2020 #GASen #Runoff #poll (12/14 - 12/16) shows GOP lead:

Senate Runoff
50.2% @PerdueSenate,
47…

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Our new @trafalgar_group 2020 #GASen #Runoff #poll (12/14 - 12/16) shows GOP lead:

Senate Runoff
50.2% @PerdueSenate,
47.5% @Ossoff,
2.3% Und

Senate Runoff (special)
52.2% @KLoeffler,
45.5% @ReverendWarnock,
2.3% Und

See Report:

 2,396  369  641  Download

Replying to @RobertCahaly: Breaking: our new @trafalgar_group #GASen polls to be released exclusively tonight on The Story w/ @marthamaccallum at 7:…

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Breaking: our new @trafalgar_group #GASen polls to be released exclusively tonight on The Story w/ @marthamaccallum at 7:20p et. Tune in to @foxnews. Be the first to know.

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Replying to @smerconish: ENCORE: Welcoming @RobertCahaly @trafalgar_group back to @SXMPOTUS @SIRIUSXM to talking polling, Georgia and the @Braves ht…

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ENCORE: Welcoming @RobertCahaly @trafalgar_group back to @SXMPOTUS @SIRIUSXM to talking polling, Georgia and the @Braves

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Replying to @HarryDCrane: If you look at states polled by @RobertCahaly (PA, FL, NC, WI, MI, GA, OH, TX, AZ, MN) and avg final errors for vote diffe…

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Replying to @PhilipWegmann: Why are Loeffler and Perdue releasing a statement about the Atlanta Braves? New polling shows that both Republicans and…

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Why are Loeffler and Perdue releasing a statement about the Atlanta Braves? New polling shows that both Republicans and Democrats overwhelmingly oppose changing the team’s name.

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Replying to @RobertCahaly: From our @trafalgar_group #GASenate #Runoff poll previously released Sat Dec 12. (Before Cleveland announcement) “This ye…

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Replying to @RobertCahaly: Our @trafalgar_group polls include other non-publicly released questions about issues we believe are or will become relev…

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From our @trafalgar_group #GASenate #Runoff poll previously released Sat Dec 12. (Before Cleveland announcement) “This year, Washington dropped the ‘Redskins,’ mascot. Do you think Atlanta should do the same with the #Braves?”

Yes 19.7%, No 71.8% Und 8.5%.

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Our @trafalgar_group polls include other non-publicly released questions about issues we believe are or will become relevant. After Cleveland baseball team’s announcement about changing their mascot, we decided to share one of those questions with you. About the Atlanta @Braves

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Quoted @NateSilver538

Since almost no people have the relevant expertise to build political forecasting models (it takes tons of work and even then is easy to get wrong), political betting markets are basically just a competition over what types of people suffer more from the Dunning–Kruger effect.

If you look at states polled by @RobertCahaly (PA, FL, NC, WI, MI, GA, OH, TX, AZ, MN) and avg final errors for vote differential.

@trafalgar_group: T +1.7
@NateSilver538: B +4.2
@RealClearNews: B +2.1

Cahaly closest to 0.0 and 538 worse than RCP, a simple average of polls.

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Quoted @RobertCahaly

Great talk with @smerconish on @CNN & @CNNi this morning about how we at @trafalgar_group see postponing of @bigten #CollegeFootball impacting the opinions of #2020PresidentialElection swing voters in #Midwest #battleground states who see @SEC or @theACC teams play this fall.

Replying to @RobertCahaly: Remember when @trafalgar_group poling showed @bigten not playing football was unpopular with voters. Then the agenda driv…

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Remember when @trafalgar_group poling showed @bigten not playing football was unpopular with voters. Then the agenda driven pollsters/pundits mocked & dismissed the idea until the moment Trump & Biden addressed it? Our recent polls in #GA about changing #Braves are just as clear.

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Replying to @RobertCahaly: Our new @trafalgar_group 2020 #GASen #Runoff #poll conducted 12/8 - 12/10 shows tightening races:

Senate Runoff
49.1% @O

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Our new @trafalgar_group 2020 #GASen #Runoff #poll conducted 12/8 - 12/10 shows tightening races:

Senate Runoff
49.1% @Ossoff,
48.8% @PerdueSenate,
2.1% Und

Senate Runoff (special)
50.4% @KLoeffler,
47.3% @ReverendWarnock,
2.3% Und

See Report:

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Replying to @dcexaminer: New polling out of Georgia shows the majority of voters believe the 2020 elections were “compromised” to the point where it…

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New polling out of Georgia shows the majority of voters believe the 2020 elections were “compromised” to the point where it could change the outcome.

@trafalgar_group also found both Senate races were essentially dead heats within the margin of error.

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Replying to @RobertCahaly: GAGOPers who aren’t committed to vote in #GASen Runoff say “If you want us to believe voting will matter, tell us how the…

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GAGOPers who aren’t committed to vote in #GASen Runoff say “If you want us to believe voting will matter, tell us how the plan differs from the last election,” according to recent @trafalgar_group research. GAGOP elected officials who don’t want a 2022 primary need a good answer!

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Replying to @RobertCahaly: Our @trafalgar_group #GASen #Runoff #Polls also shed some light on Georgia voters opinions of whether the #Presidential e…

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Our @trafalgar_group #GASen #Runoff #Polls also shed some light on Georgia voters opinions of whether the #Presidential elections were compromised enough to change the outcome.  All voters 53.2% yes, 37.9% no, 8.9% unsure.  GOP voters 74.6% yes, 15.9% no, 9.5% unsure.

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