Shocking News: #GASen #Runoff voters make pocketbook decision.
#GOP control of Senate = $2K COVID stimulus check don’t happen
Democrat control of Senate = more money is on the way.
The undecided folks broke toward Dems & working families who lean GOP lost motivation to vote.
Our final @trafalgar_group 2020 #GASen #Runoff #poll (1/2-1/4) reveals similar trends we have seen showing split win:
After @realDonaldTrump brought it up at his last #GA rally, our @trafalgar_group #GASen #Runoff #polls started asking #GOP voters about a potential #2022 #GAGOP #Primary for Governor. Results:
6.3% Lean Collins
7.3% Lean Kemp
If anyone inside the beltway was curious how 2020 #GASen #Runoff voters feel about #stimuluschecks - our latest @trafalgar_group #poll finds the $2k as popular as #BBQ, #CollegeFootball, & #SweetTea:
75.3% raise to $2000
7.4% remain $600
9.5% No checks
7.8% No opinion
Our new @trafalgar_group 2020 #GASen #Runoff #poll (12/23-27) shows a lead shift after the week of the #stimulusbill:
From our @trafalgar_group #GASenate #Runoff poll previously released Sat Dec 12. (Before Cleveland announcement) “This year, Washington dropped the ‘Redskins,’ mascot. Do you think Atlanta should do the same with the #Braves?”
Yes 19.7%, No 71.8% Und 8.5%.
Our @trafalgar_group polls include other non-publicly released questions about issues we believe are or will become relevant. After Cleveland baseball team’s announcement about changing their mascot, we decided to share one of those questions with you. About the Atlanta @Braves
Since almost no people have the relevant expertise to build political forecasting models (it takes tons of work and even then is easy to get wrong), political betting markets are basically just a competition over what types of people suffer more from the Dunning–Kruger effect.
If you look at states polled by @RobertCahaly (PA, FL, NC, WI, MI, GA, OH, TX, AZ, MN) and avg final errors for vote differential.
@trafalgar_group: T +1.7
@NateSilver538: B +4.2
@RealClearNews: B +2.1
Cahaly closest to 0.0 and 538 worse than RCP, a simple average of polls.
Great talk with @smerconish on @CNN & @CNNi this morning about how we at @trafalgar_group see postponing of @bigten #CollegeFootball impacting the opinions of #2020PresidentialElection swing voters in #Midwest #battleground states who see @SEC or @theACC teams play this fall.
Remember when @trafalgar_group poling showed @bigten not playing football was unpopular with voters. Then the agenda driven pollsters/pundits mocked & dismissed the idea until the moment Trump & Biden addressed it? Our recent polls in #GA about changing #Braves are just as clear.
Our new @trafalgar_group 2020 #GASen #Runoff #poll conducted 12/8 - 12/10 shows tightening races:
Senate Runoff (special)
New polling out of Georgia shows the majority of voters believe the 2020 elections were “compromised” to the point where it could change the outcome.
@trafalgar_group also found both Senate races were essentially dead heats within the margin of error.
GAGOPers who aren’t committed to vote in #GASen Runoff say “If you want us to believe voting will matter, tell us how the plan differs from the last election,” according to recent @trafalgar_group research. GAGOP elected officials who don’t want a 2022 primary need a good answer!
Our @trafalgar_group #GASen #Runoff #Polls also shed some light on Georgia voters opinions of whether the #Presidential elections were compromised enough to change the outcome. All voters 53.2% yes, 37.9% no, 8.9% unsure. GOP voters 74.6% yes, 15.9% no, 9.5% unsure.
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